Post-publication careers: follow-up expeditions reveal avalanches at Dyatlov Pass Comments (12)

Johan Gaume for Dyatlovpass.com. In our new article in Communications Earth & Environment, we report five main findings relevant to the Dyatlov Pass incident:

• independent research by Pigol'tsyna and Popovnin confirm main assumptions and results of our modelling;
• based on a drone survey, we confirm that slopes above the potential tent location are steep enough for avalanches to happen;
an expedition organized late January 2022 revealed the presence of slab avalanches in an eastern slope, less than 3km away from the Dyatlov group tent;
• in less than an hour, traces of the small slab avalanche (with a similar release size as the one assumed in our model) were erased because it was covered by wind-transported snow. This explains why the Dyatlov rescue team could not find avalanche signs above the tent 3 weeks after the incident. Snow observed on the tent and below it could be from the slab, as shown in our numerical simulations;
• such a short lifetime of avalanche traces also explains why no avalanches have been documented on these slopes in the past 60 years.

Dyatlovpass.com follow-up questions. Invisible avalanche? How do you answer these questions then:

Gaume: The avalanche is visible, audible and can break your ribs if it hits you when you are lying down. The release area of a small slab avalanche is quickly covered by the new snow and becomes difficult to detect. This is what Oleg and Dmitriy observed two months ago.

1. How did the footprints and traces of urination happen to be on top of the slab avalanche?
   
   Traces of urination were found at the entrance to the tent, where the pole survived and was still standing. This can indicate that the slab avalanche was rather small (about 5mx5 m according to our model) and it hit the part of the tent further away from the entrance. This can also explain why not all of them got injured.
    
2. Why did the hikers go down abreast, slowly, without looking back along the path of the alleged avalanche?
   
   The slab released above the tent was small, it hit the tent and stopped, because the slope inclination below the tent is very mild. The run-out of the avalanche according to our model was very short and did not exceed 1-2 meters below the tent. The hikers thus did not go down the path of the avalanche, they went down the undisturbed snow cover, leaving footprints in it.
    
3. How and why were the dead and unconscious transported a mile down?
   
   Based on our modeling, the injuries caused by the possible avalanche could be severe, but not fatal. Research by the San Diego hospital in collaboration with General Motors has shown that 6-12 broken ribs are not going to kill you. It is even possible to walk with such injuries with some help. But both in our original paper and now we do not insist that the injuries occurred in the tent. We just say that the slab was heavy enough to cause them, but we remain open to other possibilities (e.g., injuries in the ravine etc.).
    

You can comment at the bottom.

Steve

31-03-2022 16:09 (GMT)

I've attached the 3 most pertinent photos from the search, colourised and restored.
While some claim 3 week's worth of windblown snow would fill the void left by a slab slip breaking off, I'm not convinced it would do so completely or create such a firm surface that men could stand on it and not realize what had happened there.
And the only visible evidence of any potential avalanche was immediately below the tent site, where some 2 tones of snow (possible to calculate the volumetric weight online for snow crust) had been thrown when a tent trench was dug out, the large clumps which would survive the wind. (And some on the tent, along with a torch.)

1. Men standing on the area a slab slip would have occurred

2. Loose 'avalanche' snow below tent is from the trench.

3. Virgin snow crust above tent

1. Men standing on the area a slab slip would have occurred.
2. The only 'avalanche' loose snow below tent was from shifting 2 tones thrown when a tent trench was dug out.
3. Virgin snow crust above tent.